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une rétraction de la consommation des énergies fossiles en 2020

Posted on June 17, 2020 at 5:09 AM
Sans surprise, la crise du Coronavirus va avoir pour effet une rétraction de la consommation des énergies fossiles en 2020, selon les prévisions de l’Agence internationale de l’énergie (AIE).

 Le charbon, le pétrole et le gaz devraient reculer respectivement de 8 %, 9 % et 4 % cette année. 

Cette tendance pourrait perdurer à plus long terme et peut-être permettre d’engager un véritable virage vers un monde décarboné. D’autant plus que les énergies renouvelables se développent à des coûts de plus en plus compétitifs.

Dans un rapport publié le 10 juin, l’AIE prévoit que la pandémie aura par exemple un impact sur le marché du gaz jusqu’en 2025 au moins, car les capacités de production seront supérieures à la demande, faisant plonger les prix et les investissements. Ces derniers pourraient chuter de près d’un tiers dans le pétrole et le gaz et ceux liés à l’industrie du schiste, déjà sous pression, de moitié.

La croissance du gaz ne devrait ainsi augmenter que de 1,5 % par an en moyenne d'ici à 2025 tandis que la production de pétrole devrait baisser de 9 millions de barils par jour au même horizon.

La part du charbon continue quant à elle de se réduire dans le mix électrique mondial, même s'il reste encore majoritaire (40 %). L'Inde a pour la première fois enregistré une baisse du charbon de 3,5 % en 2019, tandis que celle-ci atteignait 12 % aux États-Unis ou encore 20 % en Allemagne. 

Le Royaume-Uni vient également d'enregistrer un record en se passant pendant deux mois d'électricité provenant de centrales à charbon, une première depuis la Révolution industrielle.     

Le pays s'est fixé pour objectif de ne plus avoir recours au charbon pour produire de l'électricité d'ici 2025. Le Covid-19 est une occasion à saisir.

Le recul de la demande et les risques croissants pour les investisseurs pourraient dès lors amputer des deux tiers la valeur des énergies fossiles et les profits de ce secteur, selon un rapport de Carbon Tracker Initiative, qui évalue les pertes à 25 000 milliards de dollars.

 "La concurrence d'énergies non carbonées aux coûts de plus en plus compétitifs, et les politiques des États en matière climatique et de souveraineté énergétique sont en train de pousser l'industrie du pétrole, du gaz et du charbon, vers le déclin final", prévient le think tank.

"Personne ne connaît l'ampleur de la reprise en 2021," explique à l'AFP l'auteur principal de l'étude, Kingsmill Bond.

 Mais le temps de retrouver les niveaux passés, "les technologies renouvelables seront assez développées pour répondre à la croissance de la demande". 

En 2019, l'électricité d'origine renouvelable a représenté 72 % de la croissance du secteur électrique, selon l'Agence internationale de l'énergie renouvelable (Irena). 

Or, quand une technologie concurrente absorbe la croissance et dépasse 5 % du marché, la technologie plus ancienne entame son déclin, comme l'histoire industrielle l'a montré, argumente Carbon Tracker.

La récente baisse du dividende chez Shell, la dépréciation de plus 4,8 milliards d’euros chez Repsol en début d'année ou de 17,5 milliards chez BP ainsi que la suppression de 10 000 emplois au sein de la major britannique sont autant de signaux en ce sens. 

L’OCDE et l’AIE appellent ainsi les États à profiter des actions de relance post Covid-19 pour éliminer le soutien aux énergies fossiles. Et le PNUE (Programme des Nations Unies pour l'environnement) prévient : "si on rate cette chance, il pourrait devenir encore plus difficile de trouver les financements pour décarboner le système énergétique dans une économie mondiale post Covid-19 caractérisée par des dettes publiques élevées et des finances sous contrainte dans le secteur privé."

Categories: Développement durable, FINANCE GLOBALE, PLACEMENTS

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