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Posted on December 28, 2019 at 5:14 AM
Shamik Dhar, chef économiste, et Alicia Levine, chef stratégiste, chez BNY Mellon Investment Management, dévoilent les principaux risques et les principales opportunités qui, selon eux, pourraient influencer les marchés au cours des douze prochains mois.

Risque 1 : retenue de la FED (probabilité : 10 %) 

Aux États-Unis, Alors qu’aux Etats-Unis l’indice des prix à la consommation augmente, les marchés anticipent à nouveau des hausses de taux et fuient les actifs risqués (par exemple, dette émergente en devise forte). 

Risque 2 : conséquences du Brexit (probabilité 25 %)

Jeremy Corbyn, le chef du parti travailliste, remporte les élections générales et annule le Brexit. Les craintes de nationalisation font chuter le marché boursier britannique, avant une contagion des autres marchés…

Risque 3 : chancellement de la Chine (probabilité 30 %)

La demande intérieure moribonde plonge l’économie chinoise dans le marasme. Le chômage augmente et les troubles à Hong Kong s’intensifient alors que les usines sont paralysées. 

Risque 4 : troubles géopolitiques au Moyen-Orient (probabilité 5 %)

Le conflit entre Iran d’un côté, et Israël et Arabie saoudite de l’autre, s’intensifie. Un premier engagement direct s’ensuit, perturbant l’offre de pétrole et augmentant le risque d’enlisement et d’escalade du conflit au-delà de ces pays. 

Risque 5 : repli du libre-échange (probabilité 30 %)

Les subventions accordées par l’Union européenne à Airbus accentuent la guerre commerciale en cours. Cette fois, c’est le secteur automobile européen qui est dans le viseur de Washington. 
Trump s’en mêle afin d’envoyer un signal fort à la Chine. 

Risque/opportunité 6 : nirvana d’un Brexit sans accord (probabilité 30 %)

Un Brexit dur se révèle beaucoup moins désastreux sur le plan économique qu’on ne le craignait. 
Les actifs libellés en livre sterling surperforment dans le sillage d’une forte dépréciation de la devise britannique. 

Risque/opportunité 7 : bataille présidentielle (probabilité 60 %)

L’élection présidentielle américaine fait l’objet d’un battage médiatique. Les marchés font des machinations politiques jusqu’aux résultats de l’élection puis pourraient se stabiliser.

Risque/opportunité 8 : tourmente budgétaire (probabilité 20 %)

Les rendements des Bunds allemands s’envolent, ceux des obligations internationales montent en flèche et les valeurs sûres sont délaissées, ce qui entraîne des pertes dans les portefeuilles obligataires. 

Opportunité 9 : pause dans la guerre commerciale (probabilité 60 %)

Donald Trump signe un accord commercial avec la Chine avant l’élection présidentielle américaine. Même s’il s’agit d’un accord peu substantiel, le soulagement des marchés fait rebondir les valeurs cycliques. Les banques, elles, surperforment. 

Opportunité 10 : bénéfices supérieurs aux attentes (probabilité 50 %)

Les entreprises américaines publient des bénéfices supérieurs aux attentes, après avoir fait preuve d’une prudence excessive dans leurs prévisions pour 2019.


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